The Next Big Thing will be Small

Last Sunday on our way to my daughter's soccer game I gave her some last minute coaching. I said, "Don't run to where the ball is, run to where it's going. Otherwise you'll just keep chasing it and never catch it."

Later that day I was catching up on some reading and I saw that Mark Suster had just posted Skate Where the Puck is Going. Not only did he say essentially the same thing (yes, Wayne Gretzky said it first), he even talked about how the idea of "check-ins for TV, with badges" isn't really innovation, something we've been saying at WatchParty since the beginning.

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Suster talked about how the latest buzzwords always get put into pitches and plans - in other words, playing to the puck at one's feet - without any thought to truly innovating - playing to where the puck is going. Since I spend so much time thinking about where the puck will be, I thought I would share some of those thoughts.

I'll start with social networking; specifically Facebook and Twitter. Right now their limitations are beginning to show, and can be stated simply: TOO MUCH.

Having hundreds of friends on Facebook and following hundreds of people on Twitter was great, but for most of us it's simply become too much to handle. We have to sift through too many updates to find relevant information in the midst of what is, frankly, a whole bunch of garbage. Facebook and Twitter both recognize the problem; Facebook added groups and Twitter added lists to help people manage the information, and both have plans to add more features that address information overload.

Even with new features, the core problem will continue to exist: Both Facebook and Twitter want you to form essentially permanent connections with other people. That's fine for people you actually care about, but it creates problems around privacy and too much personal information when most of your connections are really just acquaintances. These tools, great as they are, force users to be cautious about using them.

The potential for The Next Big Thing has opened up.

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The Next Big Thing, in my opinion, will be social networks that allow participants to interact with one another without requiring them to commit to being permanently connected. I call them micro-networks.

Micro-networks are rapidly-formed networks that spring into existence in response to a specific catalyst, and which dissolve as soon as the catalyst is removed. They exist everywhere in nature, from the large numbers of normally solitary bears who gather to feast during salmon runs to the small group of strangers who suddenly feel close to one another because they witnessed the same unusual or traumatic event.

There are a number of companies flirting with this already. Ning isn't too far off by letting you set up your own social network around some specific identity, but it's not quite micro-networking - yet. The Social Collective builds social networks around conferences - true micro-networks in that they are networks that are formed temporarily around a specific catalyst. WatchParty is building a platform for micro-networks formed around specific TV events. I know others who are building micro-networking platforms around the bar scene, sporting events from high school to professional leagues, and festivals. One very interesting component of this is the fact that mobile technology makes the formation of online micro-networks extremely easy.

I may be wrong. But I may be right. We'll know in a few more years. But I'm willing to bet my future (in fact I already am) that in a couple of years the Web is going to see an explosion of platforms that let people come together and interact for a short period of time around a specific topic or event, and then let them all peacefully go their separate ways.